This study analyzes teacher turnover in Chile using national administrative records for 1.36 million teachers across 15 entry cohorts (2007–2021) followed through 2024, applying multilevel discrete-time hazard models. Results show that turnover is highly concentrated in the first year (~39%) and varies markedly across schools. Younger teachers and those in secondary or special education display higher hazards, while permanent contracts and greater contracted hours are associated with lower risks. Schools incorporated into the Sistema de Desarrollo Profesional Docente (Teacher Professional Development System, Law 20.903, 2016) and the Nueva Educación Pública (New Public Education, Law 21.040, 2017) exhibit lower turnover on average; however, staggered adoption and potential selection effects caution against causal interpretation. Overall, the findings highlight early-career fragility, organizational heterogeneity, and the potential—yet uneven—role of professionalization and governance policies in promoting workforce stability.
@unpublished{Calderon2026EdReformsTurnover,
title={Teacher Turnover and Educational Reforms in Chile: Individual, School, and System-Level Factors},
author={Calderon, Jose-Ignacio and Carrasco, Diego and Diaz, Alessandra and Lopez, Dany and Salas, Macarena and Tornero, Bernardita},
year={2026},
note={Working paper}
}